Abstract:

This talk will address how a basic quantitative model or objective function of a design-and-manufacturing firm can be applied to analyze the effectiveness of terrorist organizations as well counter-terrorism campaigns. The model in question was originally presented in "An Economic Theory of Technological Products" in Technological Forecasting and Social Change (March 1995). It derived and analyzed an equation of a design-and-manufacturing firm's ROI in terms of the product's technological performance and production rate, as well as investments in product design, the production system, and the design and distribution of the sales argument. This talk will focus on the applicability of this objective function to terrorist organizations, provided they are viewed as a utility-seeking firm that designs and produces acts of "profitable" violence. By inverting this ROI relationship, the basic strategic challenges for a counter-terrorist campaign emerge as well.

About the speaker:

Brett D. Steele is a Science and Technology Advisor at Ideal Innovations, Inc., and an Adjunct Associate Professor in Georgetown University's Security Studies Program. Dr. Steele earned his undergraduate and graduate degrees in mechanical engineer at Cal Poly San Luis Obispo and Stanford University, respectively, while working at NASA, Hewlett-Packard, and Exponent. He received his Ph.D. in the history of science and technology from the University of Minnesota in 1994, having written a dissertation on the symbiosis between early modern science and warfare, followed by postdoctoral studies at UCLA and MIT from 1995-2000. Dr. Steele served on the research staff of the RAND Corporation's Arroyo Center and the Homeland Security Institute's Operations Division from 2001-2007. In addition to UCLA's Department of History and School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Dr. Steele has taught at Stanford University and the Royal Institute of Technology in Stockholm. He is the co-editor of The Heirs of Archimedes: Science and the Art of War through the Age of Enlightenment (MIT Press, 2005). Other publications include Military Reengineering between the World Wars (RAND, 2005) and "An Economic Theory of Technological Products" in Technological Forecasting and Social Change (March 1995).

The evening program will start at 6:30 with networking, which will include a light snack provided by WINFORMS. The presentation will start at 7:00 pm.

Location:

Booz Allen Hamilton in Arlington, Virginia - Crystal Square 2 Suite 1100 1550 Crystal Drive Arlington VA 22202.

Metro Access:

Crystal City stop on the Blue and Yellow Lines. Upon exiting metro, follow Crystal City Underground signs to 15th Street. Elevators are at the entrance to the Crystal City Shops on 15th street.

Special Instructions:

Elevators close down to public access at 6:00PM. BA-H will have three people at the elevators to escort people up to the conference room. For those arriving after the program starts, at elevators, there is a phone to call up to the receptionist at 1-703-412-7700. A Booz Allen staff member with an access key will come down to escort people up to the 11th floor.

Conference room is right off the reception area.

Parking:

There is underground public parking, enter from 15th Street. You will then need to take an elevator to the Shop Level. Upon exiting at Shop Level follow signs to 15th Street. During the day, there is a charge of $17.

However, starting at approximately 6:30pm parking is free.

RECENT PAST MEETINGS AND EVENTS

Abstract:

Government agencies are buried in backlogs of decisions about claims for a large variety of benefits provided under government programs. This talk will discuss how advanced analytic methods, in particular data and text mining, were used to substantially reduce the backlogs of this workload at the Social Security Administration. The solution, developed for SSA, applies advanced analytic methods to identify the obviously disabled in real time from a daily applicant pool of 15,000 applications. The talk will include a discussion of the business problem, the details of the analytic solution, and the challenges of implementation in a real time operational environment. The talk will also describe the central role of the leadership at the Social Security Administration that championed the use of thes! e tools and had the focus to make substantial changes to business processes to take full advantage of the analytical solutions obtained. The speaker, Dr. Arnie Greenland, was quoted on IBM’s work in this area in the February 25, 2008 issue of Federal Times.

About the speaker:

Dr. Arnie Greenland is an IBM Distinguished Engineer and Executive within the Global Business Services, Public Sector Supply Chain Practice. He has over 30 years experience in delivering modeling and simulation services for both public- and private-sector clients. His experience includes both project management and technical leadership in the application of mathematical tools to business problems. These methods include operations research, business process modeling and simulation, business forecasting, network optimization, statistical analysis, data mining, and systems development. Dr. Greenland is a recognized expert in simulation modeling and has written numerous referred papers and delivered many papers at professional and technical meetings in this and related areas, and he is the IBM representative on the INFORMS Industry Roundtable, a group of industry leaders that advise the Operations Research profession on topics related to practice. In 2005, Dr. Greenland was recognized by IBM as an IBM Distinguished Engineer. Currently his primary responsibility is technical leadership, project management, and business development within the IBM Global Business Services public sector supply chain practice. In his prior role, Dr. Greenland founded the Operations Analytics group within IBM. This group focuses on advanced analytics, modeling, and simulation. Under his technical leadership, the Operations Analytics team served a large variety of clients including the Internal Revenue Service, the Social Security Administration’s Office of Disability, the U.S. Postal Service, the Federal Aviation Administration, and the Department of Defense. Arnie joined IBM with the acquisition of PricewaterhouseCoopers Consulting. Prior to his more than 13 years with IBM, he was a principal in a small professional services company engaged in the public sector market and worked for other professional services consulting firms. Early in his career he held an academic appointment at George Mason University in the Mathematical Sciences Department where he taught courses in Operations Research, Statistics and Mathematics. The evening program will start at 6:30 with networking, which will include a light snack provided by WINFORMS. The presentation will start at 7:00 pm.

Location: NOTE CHANGE

OMNI Engineering & Technology, Inc. 8200 Greensboro Drive, Suite 900 McLean, VA 22102-3306 202-536-9525 (blkbry) or 703.470.8803 (cell) if main door is locked. Above ground open and free parking after 6:00. Garage parking is available for a fee.

Directions to OMNI Engineering & Technology, Inc.

From Capital Beltway, I-495 in Virginia: Take Exit 46A (Tysons Corner/Rt. 123 South). Go under I-495 and through the first light. After passing the first light, move to the right. At the second light, turn right onto International Drive; move to left as soon as possible and at first light, turn left onto Greensboro Drive. See From Greensboro Drive below.

From Maryland and North: Take Capital Beltway, I-495 South toward Virginia. Cross the American Legion Bridge. Take Exit 46A (Tysons Corner/Rt. 123 South). Go through the first light. After passing the first light, move to the right. At the second light, turn right onto International Drive; move to left as soon as able and at first light, turn left onto Greensboro Drive. See From Greensboro Drive below.

From Washington, D.C. and Arlington: Take I-66 West. Take Exit 67 (I-495/ Baltimore/ Dulles Airport) to Exit 10A (Tysons Corner/Rt. 123 South). Continue on Rt. 123 South under I-495. Go through the first light. After passing the first light, move to the right. At the second light, turn right onto International Drive; move to left as soon as able and at first light, turn left onto Greensboro Drive. See From Greensboro Drive below.

From Greensboro Drive: Take the first right into the parking lot (parking lot entrance sign says 8180 and 8200 Greensboro Drive). If visiting Monday through Friday during business hours, take an immediate right to park on the first level of the garage in spaces reserved for visitors. After 5PM during the week and anytime on weekends park in the surface parking lot. OMNI is on the 9th floor at 8200 Greensboro Drive.

WINFORMS/IIE JOINT EVENING PROGRAM

April 8, 2008 at Booz Allen Hamilton in Crystal City

Can We Detect The Coming Plague?

Abstract:

We consider how to develop metrics that could help us detect natural and human-caused outbreaks of infectious diseases and assess long-term health consequences of disasters. Naturally occurring biological threats already exhibit a pattern of increasing difficulty of detection, more subtle and complex attack pathways, taking advantage of social stigmas attached to some conditions, and exploitation of our own resources against us. (AIDS is one obvious example, but there is strong evidence that obesity and depression may have similar causes, at least in part.) All these factors complicate detection. Tests of a few proposed metrics lead to some disturbing conclusions.

About the speaker:

Douglas A. Samuelson is a Principal Decision Scientist for Serco, an information technology and management consulting company headquartered in London, England, with a North American subsidiary headquartered in Vienna, Virginia. He is also President of InfoLogix, Inc., a research and development company in Annandale, Virginia. He has also been a Federal policy analyst, inventor, high-tech entrepreneur and executive, and university faculty member. He is perhaps best known for his popular and long-running “The ORacle” col! umn in OR/MS Today. He has a D.Sc. in operations research from George Washington University. The evening program will start at 6:30 with networking, which will include a light snack provided by WINFORMS. The presentation will start at 7:00 pm. Location:

WINFORMS/IIE JOINT EVENING PROGRAM

March 11, 2008 at Booz Allen Hamilton in Crystal City

Modeling and Optimizing the Public Health Infrastructure for Emergency Response

Abstract: City readiness and emergency response for biological, radiological, and infectious disease outbreaks involves multi-level strategic and operational planning of the public health infrastructure. We provide an overview infrastructure network and highlight some challenges in emergency preparedness and response. We then describe our experience with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and with state and county public health and emergency response administrators on large-scale dispensing of prophylactic medication. Strategic stockpile, medical supply distribution, locations of dispensing facilities, optimal facility staffing and resource allocation, routing of the population, and various logistics, transportation, and dispensing modalities will be discussed and analyzed.

About the speaker: Eva Lee is an Associate Professor of Industrial and Systems Engineering at Georgia Technology, and Director of the Center for Operations Research in Medicine and HealthCare. She is also a Senior Research Professor at the Atlanta VA Medical Center. She earned her doctorate from Rice University in 1993, has won several postdoctoral fellowships and other awards, and holds seven patents for medical systems and devices. Together, Professor Lee and Dr. Marco Zaider from Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center won the 2007 Edelman Prize for ! their w ork on using operations research to advance cancer therapeutics.

The evening program will start at 6:30 with networking, which will include a light snack provided by WINFORMS. The presentation will start at 7:00 pm.

Location: Booz Allen Hamilton in Arlington, Virginia - Crystal Square 2 Suite 1100 1550 Crystal Drive Arlington VA 22202.

Metro Access: Crystal City stop on the Blue and Yellow Lines. Upon exiting metro, follow Crystal City Underground signs to 15th Street. Elevators are at the entrance to the Crystal City Shops on 15th street.

Special Instructions: Elevators close down to public access at 6:00PM. BA-H will have three people at the elevators to escort people up to the conference room. For those arriving after the program starts, at elevators, there is a phone to call up to the receptionist at 1-703-412-7700. A Booz Allen staff member with an access key will come down to escort people up to the 11th floor. Conference room is right off the reception area.

JOINT WINFORMS / IIE EVENING PRESENTATION

Tuesday, January 29, 2008 networking starting at 6:30 pm & talk at 7:00 pm

Process Control Using Free-Style Text

Ted Allen, Ph.D

OMNI Engineering & Technology, Inc.

Program Description: Massive databases with free-style text fields are a common feature of virtually all types of organizations from hospitals to aviation companies to governmental agencies. Perhaps the most promising approaches for intelligent, automatic text analysis are called ``topic models''. Here, we propose so-called topic model process control (TMPC) approach for control charting systems characterized by free-style text. This approach identifies new trends and assignable cause. It is based on the recently introduced topic supervision using ``anti-words'' and chi-squared tests on the empirical topic percentages from Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We illustrate the benefits of TMPC through its application to monitoring demo ! downloa d comments for an e-company. Interesting rare, unexpected topics are discovered after supervision representing new classes of customers, and the TMPC method correctly indicates unusual activities and their root causes.

Speaker Bio: Theodore (Ted) Allen, Ph.D. is an associate professor of industrial and systems engineering at The Ohio State University. He has over 40 refereed publications in applied statistics and operations research including a Springer textbook on engineering statistics. His work on text analysis was supported by grants from the U. S. Army Research Laboratory and an Ohio consulting company called Lextant. Ted has served as an officer for the quality, statistics and reliability (QSR) section of informs twice and organized numerous sections at national conferences. He is also the co-founder of the statistics and optimization software and consulting company Sagata Ltd. Sagata's w! ork on improving allocations of voting machines to precincts was featured in the December 2007 issue of OR/MS Today.

Meeting location in TYSON’S CORNER:

OMNI Engineering & Technology, Inc. 8200 Greensboro Drive, Suite 900 McLean, VA 22102-3306

Contact: Russell Wooten 202-536-9525

Parking: Open lot parking free and available in front of building. Garage parking available under building for fee

Joint WINFORMS / IIE Technical Presentation

Wednesday, October 17, 2007

SPEAKER: Doug Hubbard, President, Hubbard Decision Research

TITLE: "How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business"

ABSTRACT: Doug Hubbard will talk about the approach described in his book, "How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles". Hubbard's method, Applied Information Economics (AIE) includes how to formulate intangibles as measurable and techniques for improving Monte Carlo models including:

1. How "calibration training" improves on the subjective estimates from subject matter experts

2. How to compute the value of additional information and how this radically changes empirical measurement methods

3. How to use the output of a Monte Carlo as input to portfolio optimization methods

BIO: Doug Hubbard has more than 20 years experience in IT management consulting including 12 years experience in teaching organizations to use his Applied Information Economics (AIE) method. He invented AIE to quantify the value and risk of IT in a mathematically and scientifically sound manner and this methodology is used in a variety of Fortune 500 companies and major government agencies (civilian and military). He is an internationally recognized expert in the field of IT value and is a popular speaker at numerous conferences. Doug is the author of "How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of 'Intangibles' in Business" and numerous articles in InformationWeek and CIO Magazine. He was formerly with Coopers & Lybrand, and has an MBA in Management Information Systems from his home state at the University of South Dakota.

Social Networking Starts at 6:30, Presentation Starts at 7:00 Location of Presentation; School of Business, The George Washington University (Host: Department of Decision Sciences) Duques Hall, Room 552

Duques Hall is located on the west side of 22nd Street NW between G and H streets. The entrance is from 22nd street.

Note GWU Location: Driving Directions to George Washington University

From North Interstate 95 south to Interstate 495 (Capital Beltway) toward Silver Spring/Northern Virginia. Take exit 33, heading south on Connecticut Avenue for about 9 miles. Turn right onto Florida Avenue (just past the Washington Hilton) and turn left immediately onto 21st Street. Turn right on H Street. The Academic Center is on the right. The Department is located on the 7th floor. From Northwest: Interstate 270 to Interstate 495 (Capital Beltway) toward Silver Spring. Take exit 33, heading south on Connecticut Avenue for about 9 miles. Follow directions as given in From North.

From West: Interstate 66 and Route 50 both connect with the Theodore Roosevelt Bridge. Cross the bridge and exit left at E Street, then again at Virginia Avenue. Bear left, following signs for 23rd Street. Turn right on 23rd Street and continue a few blocks to campus. Turn right on H Street. The Academic Center is on the left. The Department is located on the 7th floor. From South: Interstate 95 to Interstate 395 Arlington Memorial Bridge exit. Cross the bridge and bear left at the Lincoln Memorial. Turn left onto 23rd Street, NW, and follow directions as given in From West.

Visitor Street Parking Visitor street parking is available at no cost starting at 6:30 pm. Visitor Parking Visitor parking is available at the intersection of 22nd and I ("Eye") Street. To enter, drive on 23rd Street, turn into I Street, and then turn right into the visitor parking building.

Riding the Metro

1. Get off at the "Foggy Bottom-GWU" stop from the Blue or Orange Line.

2. Once on the street level, cross 23rd Street and proceed east on I ("Eye") Street.

3. Continue on I Street and cross 22nd Street.

4. The Academic Center is on the right; the Department is on the 7th floor.

Riders on the Red line can transfer to the Blue or Orange lines from Metro Center. Green line riders can transfer at L'Enfant Plaza. Yellow Line riders can transfer at the Pentagon or L'Efant Plaza, depending upon your direction of origin.

Metro fare ranges from $1.10 to a maximum of $3.25 per person, depending upon time of day and distance traveled. Consult the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) website for more information. WINFORMS and IIE JOINT TECHNICAL EVENING PRESENTATION

TUESDAY, August 28, 2007

Social Networking Starts at 6:30, Presentation Starts at 7:00

Location of Presentation: Computer Science Department and the Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Department of GWU

Phillips Hall, Room 736

801 22nd St NW

Washington, DC 20052

Presentation; "Everything you wanted to know about the Winter Simulation Conference 2007"

Speaker: Dr. Russell Barton , The Pennsylvania State University. Dr. Barton is the Program Chair for the Winter Simulation Conference. http://www.wintersim.org/ The conference takes place in Washington DC from December 9th through December 12th at the JW Marriott Hotel. JW Marriott Hotel Pennsylvania Avenue TUESDAY, JULY 17, 2006, Social Networking at 6:30, Presentation Starts at 7:00

*** NOTE NEW LOCATION: Computer Science Department and the Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Department of GWU (Directions below) Phillips Hall, Room 736 801 22nd St NW Washington, DC 20052

Presentation: "I'm Not Looking, But..."

Panel: Former WINFORMS Presidents and INFORMS Moving Spirit Award Winners Dr . Doug Samuelson and Dr. Russ Vane. Moderated by current WINFORMS President Russell Wooten.

The position of OR/MS in the analytical community seems to have changed. There are fewer recruiters than before looking specifically for OR analysts, but there are also few OR analysts looking for work, as far as we can tell. What we do hear frequently, both from individuals and from corporate HR people, is, "What can you tell me about [company / person]? How well would we fit together?" So, what qualities do OR analysts need to thrive in this market? Is OR becoming mostly a hire-by-referral occupation? Is subject matter knowledge more and more necessary? If so, how can WINFORMS help its members build their networks to take advantage of this market, and what skills can we help each other to acquire? What does this mean for each of us, for us as a profession, and for WINFORMS?

Patricia McCormick and Thomas McCormick of Alpha Informatics, Limited

Tuesday, June 5, 2007, Simulating Communications Response to a Nuclear Terrorist Attack on Washington, DC

NOTE LOCATION CHANGE: CACI - 1600 Wilson Blvd. Suite 1300, Arlington, VA 22209

(CACI large Conference Room on the 13th floor. CACI is located walking distance from the Rosslyn Metro Stop

To support an analysis of DoD response to a nuclear terrorist attack on Washington, DC, a study team from Alpha Informatics, Limited (AIL) and SPARTA, Inc. examined the impact of alternative communications architectures on the outcomes of the scenario. We used the Communications Architecture Support Tool (CAST), a discrete event simulation developed by AIL, and the Systems Effectiveness Analysis Simulation (SEAS), an Air Force toolkit agent based complex adaptive systems simulation developed and maintained by SPARTA.

After discussions with several civil First Response organizations, the team developed a detailed representation of both the civil First Responders and DoD elements included in the scenario, and implemented this representation in SEAS. In addition, the team developed a simulation incorporating the civil First Responder 800 MHz radio system, the civil PSTN, and the DoD communications capabilities in CAST to examine the flow of mission critical information in the scenario. The concepts driving both of these efforts were based on, and synchronized with, the response plan prepared by the Washington Metropolitan Council of Governments, the National Incident Management System, applicable local support agreements, and DoD organizational capabilities.

The resulting simulation provides insights into the impact of communications interoperability on the outcome of the scenario, as well as operational planning insights which may be of use to first response planners.

About the Presenters Ms. McCormick holds a BS in Computer Science from the US Military Academy, West Point, and an MS (with Distinction) in Operations Research from George Mason University. Mr. McCormick holds a BA in History from Dickinson College, an MS in Systems Management from Troy State University, and an MA in International Relations/Strategic Studies from Boston University. He is also a graduate of the US Army Command and General Staff College and the Joint Forces Staff College. Tuesday, April 24, 2007, "Simulation-supported Decision Making"

Gene Allen

NOTE THE MEETING LOCATION: CACI - 1600 Wilson Blvd. Suite 1300 (13th Floor Large Conference Room), Arlington, VA 22209. CACI is located walking distance from the Rosslyn Metro Stop

JOINT MEETING OF
Washington DC Chapter of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (WINFORMS)
National Capital Chapter of the Institute of Industrial Engineers (IIE)
The Society for Manufacturing Engineers (SME)
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers-Engineering Management Society (IEEE-EMS)

Engineering provides a knowledge base for decision making. An engineering knowledge base is the culmination of education, training, and experience that provides insight and understanding of how things work or do not work. A program's engineering knowledge base consists of the knowledge and expertise of all the personnel involved over the lifecycle of a program with all accompanying documentation.

The majority of an engineering knowledge base is learned from experience in testing and operations. However, learning from prototype testing and operational accidents/problems is both costly, time consuming, and risky. In the past, this has been an accepted cost of adopting new technologies, as it has been the only way we learn about what we do not know. The unanticipated and often non-intuitive results of new technologies are often realized in operations, and sometimes only after decades. This uncertainty is the result of combinations of factors or characteristics, all of which have natural ranges of variability. This variability and uncertainty has historically been taken into account through the use of safety factors, based on experience.

The advances and availability of computer capability can be used as a substitute for the experience-based safety factors used in design. Virtual data can be generated by running multiple physics-based analyses of a parameterized computer model, varying parameters across their natural ranges with each run. This process provides an accurate simulation of reality. Results are a cloud of points with each point being an accurate result of that specific combination of variables. The simulation process includes as many variables as possible. A simulation consists of 100 analysis runs, sampling all variables using advanced Monte Carlo sampling methods. One hundred analysis runs provides a simulation resolution equivalent to the resolution of inputs. This process minimizes the need for making initial assumptions, which are often a source of problems as people most often do not know what they do not know at the time of making their assumptions.

Different correlation methods are used to filter the number of variables in the simulation result to those individual variables, or groups of variables, that are most significant. This shows cause and effect information. Additionally, automatic outlier detection can be used to quickly identify those combinations of variables what generate anomalies. The combination of 1) cause and effect information and 2) the knowledge gained through understanding outliers provides accurate input to the engineering knowledge base that can be used for decision making. Simulation, using today's readily available computer capability, is being used to learn and gain otherwise unavailable knowledge for making decisions.

Gene Allen is Director of Collaborative Development for MSC Software. In this capacity he has established a number of collaborative R&D programs applying computers in design and manufacturing to speed the development of better, safer products. He has worked in collaborative design automation efforts with numerous organizations including Boeing, Lockheed-Martin, Ford, General Motors, Pratt & Whitney, Texas Instruments, Kodak, DARPA, NASA, NIST, DOE labs. Earlier positions include Director Collaborative Development at the National Center for Manufacturing Sciences, Assistant to U.S. Senator Robert C. Byrd, and Associate with Booz, Allen & Hamilton. .

Gene is probably best known for his book, Collaborative R&D: Manufacturing's New Tool (National Association of Manufacturers), Gene Allen and Rick Jarman, Wiley (1999). He holds an engineering degree from MIT and served as a nuclear-trained Navy officer after graduation.

Wednesday, February 28, 2007, "The Tragedy of Being a Professional Engineer or Scientist: How Safe Are We?"

Gerald Voorhies

Automotive insurers know that we engineers and scientists are less safe behind the wheel than most others. Why? We love our jobs so much we can’t stop designing, analyzing, etc. To the extent that we continue to process work while not in front of the computer, our safety equation decreases.

Mr. Gerald Voorhies is a safety professional with a degree in Engineering Technology/Industrial Safety from Texas A&M University. He spent a career (25 years) in the Navy as a designated Naval Aviator with over 4,300 hours of flight time. He was the Safety Department Head in three (3) Helicopter Squadrons, including a basic training squadron in Pensacola, Florida. He currently works for the Department of Homeland Security at the Transportation Security Administration Headquarters in the Information Technology Division.

Thursday, February 8, 2007, "Agent-Based Simulation of Crowd Dynamics and Mass Egress"

For the Science and Technology Directorate, U S Department of Homeland Security, we constructed agent-based simulation models of mass egress from a stadium (PNC Park, in Pittsburgh) and a subway station following detonation of one or more improvised explosive devices. We offer hands-on demonstrations of these models and discuss their application and planned expansion to identify promising counter-IEDs technologies, to support preparedness and planning, and to help manage incidents. One surprising finding to date is that expediting egress does not necessarily reduce post-detonation casualties. We will also present results of additional work on real-time movie-like rendering of the models’ output in both pure Java and Python/C++ implementations.

The Authors

Douglas A. Samuelson is a senior analyst at HSI, President of WINFORMS, a well-known OR/MS practitioner, and the author of the long-running "ORacle" column in OR/MS Today, He has also been a Federal policy analyst, a software designer, an inventor, and a high-tech entrepreneur and executive. He has a B.A. in statistics from the U. of California - Berkeley and M.S. and D.Sc. degrees in operations research from George Washington U.

Matthew Parker is an analyst for ANSER, leading and supporting computer projects for ANSER and HSI. He has a B.S. degree in mathematics from Purdue and a M.S. in computational science from George Mason U.

Austin Zimmerman joined HSI as an associate analyst in June 2006, following her graduation from M.I.T. with dual B.S. degrees in physics and management science.

Loren Miller joined HSI as an associate analyst in June 2006. He has a B.S. degree in economics from Cal Poly - Pomona and is currently in the M. A. program in security studies at Georgetown.

Tuesday, November 28, 2006, "Heralding Unheard Voices: The Role of Faith-based Organizations (FBOs) and Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) in Post-Katrina Response," Pete Hull, Homeland Security Institute

When the geographic scales, intensities and durations of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita overwhelmed the existing disaster response resources, FBOs and NGOs undertook a surprisingly large, varied and demanding set of activities with extraordinary effectiveness. They provided shelter, food, medical services, hygiene services, mental health and spiritual care, physical reconstruction, logistics management and services, transportation, children's services, and case management. The successes of FBOs and NGOs in providing these services were a marked contrast to the many chronicled deficiencies and failures of government during the catastrophic 2005 hurricane season. By studying these organizations' successes, we can learn lessons that may make the Nation better prepared for, and thus more responsive to, such catastrophes.

Pete Hull is a Senior Analyst at HSI, specializing in preparedness and emergency response issues. He has a BA in International Studies from USF and an MS in Systems Technology (Space Systems Operations) from the Naval Postgraduate School. He served as a Naval Intelligence Officer for 19 years and held management positions in the aerospace and non-profit arenas. Before joining HSI, Mr. Hull was the Executive Manager for Emergency Preparedness of the US Senate Sergeant at Arms (SAA). There, he provided advice to the SAA on a wide range of emergency preparedness issues, worked closely with Senators' offices to prepare the institution for an emergency, and was the SAA's liaison to national level organizations.

Richele R. Scuro has been working for CVS Pharmacy since 1998. She provides process improvement support for a region including 4 distribution centers (out of 13 in Network), over $28B of retail responsibility, and over 3.3M sq.ft. of Distribution Center space (union and non-union environments). Ms. Scuro manages the local Information Systems Department of 5 employees, multiple contractors, and consultants. She works with cost analyses, budgets, volume projections, and other detail work. Ms. Scuro has successfully managed projects from conception to implementation: $7.2M capital project improving operations 6% at start and redeemed 3.5 year ROI; $5M capital project improved.

The Panelists:

Eric Christoph is the Vice President of Puma Systems, Inc., a small woman owned consulting business serving federal clients. He is a consultant and trainer who spends his days attempting to help clients implement OMB guidelines and mandates such as PMBOK processes and earned value management (EVM) within large federal projects or Program Management Offices.

Saul Gass is currently Professor Emeritus at the Smith School of Business, U. MD. He served with the Air Force’s Directorate of Management Analysis (Pentagon), the organization in which linear programming was first developed. Later, for IBM, he was an Applied Science Representative, Manager of the Project Mercury Man in Space Program, and Manager of IBM's Federal Civil Programs. He has served as a consultant for and to a number of firms and governmental organizations. He is a past President of ORSA and Omega Rho, a Fellow of INFORMS, and the recipient of numerous awards.

John Kettelle’s 50-year professional career has taken him into many situations involving complex policy decisions and the accompanying political and psychological complications. His entrepreneurial career started with his partnership with Daniel Wagner and culminated with Ketron, an OR company with over 300 employees. He has been active in MORS, Chairman of MAS, a founding member of the Management Science Roundtable, and editor of numerous books published by ORSA/INFORMS.

Doug Samuelson, moderator, has served for many years and with some success as a Federal policy analyst, private consultant, and high-tech inventor and entrepreneur. He is currently a senior analyst with the Homeland Security Institute, author of the long-running “ORacle” column in OR/MS Today, and just starting his third (non-consecutive) term as President of WINFORMS.

Time: 6:00 pm networking, with the program presentation starting at 6:30 pm

Location: Conference Room 800 at General Dynamics in Rosslyn

Eric Wolman has a doctorate in applied mathematics from Harvard. He spent 30 years at Bell Telephone Laboratories, working in telecommunications traffic and network design, and in management. After retiring from Bell Labs, he joined the Michigan Cancer Foundation in Detroit and then taught in the PhD Program in Cancer Biology at Wayne State University School of Medicine. Since 1988 he has worked in cancer epidemiology with emphasis on screening-policy. He is now a Visiting Research Professor in Systems Engineering & Operations Research at George Mason University. He served on the ORSA Council (1979-82) and is now Senior Treasurer of INFORMS’s Forum on Women in OR/MS.

Please join us for a buffet (gratis) at 6 pm followed by the talk at 6:30 pm.

Important message for non-US citizens. To attend, you must register with Dr. Russ Vane in advance. Please contact him at 703-516-6376 or russ.vane@gd-ais.com

Exchanges of information among decision-makers during the early stages of a crisis do not always follow pre-determined plans, especially if the unexpected, evolving, and interdependent nature of the information places a greater emphasis on natural language communication. We will describe an approach developed for the analysis of military command and control during crises that may be relevant to the response to an infectious disease outbreak. ProMEDmail is an Internet-based system dedicated to rapid global dissemination of information on outbreaks of infectious diseases and acute exposures to toxins that affect human health. It is a candidate for the application of the command and control approach and could benefit from further analysis by the WINFORMS community.

The Presenter, Ms. Marjorie Greene, is a Senior Program Manager with SAIC and has been a contractor with the Office of Naval Research Operations Analysis Program since 2002. She previously held positions with the Center for Naval Analyses, ANSER, and several organizations in the UK, where she pursued her interest in exploiting operational data for future planning. She has B.S. and M.A. degrees in mathematics and has completed course work for her PhD. in Operations Research at Johns Hopkins University.

Please join us for a buffet (gratis) at 6 pm followed by the talk at 6:30 pm.

Important message for non-US citizens. To attend, you must register with Dr. Russ Vane in advance. Please contact him at 703-516-6376 or russ.vane@gd-ais.com

Tuesday, December 13 2005, "Out of the Ordinary: Finding Hidden Threats by Analyzing Unusual Behavior" Dr. John Hollywood, Rand Corporation

This talk will discuss the Atypical Signal Analysis and Processing (ASAP) concept for identifying, relating, and analyzing potential clues of terrorist activities. Modeled after thought processes used by successful problem solvers, ASAP identifies out of the ordinary, atypical behavior that is potentially related to terror activity. ASAP then puts the behavior into context, generates and tests hypotheses about the meaning of the behavior, and focuses analysts' attention on he most significant results. We also discuss the development of the concept. Systems engineering and architecture development proved to be the most important part of developing ASAP; while individual data processing and analysis tools were broadly available, the overall architecture and control structures for employing the tools were not. Finally, we discuss what can be done in the short term to capture some of the benefits of ASAP.

Dr. Hollywood is an Operations Researcher at the RAND Corporation. At RAND, he conducts research on the design, implementation, and ongoing management of complex policy solutions serving multiple stakeholders, primarily in the area of information technology. These have included a concept for finding hidden terror threats by collaboratively analyzing and detecting unusual behavior, and a concept for managing information networks that combines techniques from cybernetics, supply chain and manufacturing management, and organizational theory to satisfy the needs of a network's end users. He has worked on several projects assessing the contribution of information technologies to improved military effectiveness, and is currently examining tactics and techniques to defeat improvised explosive device attacks in Iraq.

Dr. Hollywood has a Ph.D. in Operations Research from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Please join us for a buffet (gratis) at 6 pm followed by the talk at 6:30 pm.

Important message for non-US citizens. To attend, you must register with Dr. Russ Vane in advance. Please contact him at 703-516-6376 or russ.vane@gd-ais.com

Tuesday, 25 October 2005, "Agent-Based Modeling of the Rise and Fall of Civilizations" Prof. Claudio Cioffi-Revilla

Attention non-US citizens: To attend you must have registered with Dr. Russ Vane. Contact him at 703-516-6376 and russ.vane@gd-ais.com.

While social and political scientists have a long tradition of developing simulation models, starting with systems dynamics in the 1970s, it wasn't until recent years that object-oriented programming rendered possible the representation of countries and regions with much more realistic geographic and economic detail. We will review the present state-of-the-art and future potential of agent-based modeling applied to the simulation of long-term processes of geopolitical expansion and contraction or collapse, with an emphasis on George Mason University's own MASON simulation toolkit. Some of the processes already being modeled include decision-making, trade, warfare, and territorial change resulting in political fluctuations.

The Presenter, Claudio Cioffi-Revilla is a professor of computational social sciences and director of the Center for the Study of Social Complexity, George Mason University. He previously held faculty positions at the University of Colorado, the University of Illinois at Champaign-Urbana, and the University of North Carolina. His research interests include global dynamics of war and peace, emergence of social complexity, and agent-based models of cooperation and competition. He collaborated in developing MASON, a multi-agent simulation package. He is vice president of the North American Association for Computational Social and Organizational Science (NAACSOS). He has a Ph.D. in political science from Florence, Italy.

Please plan to attend and bring some friends along to the meeting. We look forward to seeing you.

For people attending the MORS conference in Tysons Corner, the GD-AIS site is about a 20-minute drive from Tysons. Take Route 123 North to I-66 East, exit at Lee Highway, turn right at Key Boulevard, and turn right on Nash. Several WINFORMS members will attend the MORS conference, so car pooling is possible.

On September 11, 2001, in response to a call for help from the Pentagon, Mr. Kilsheimer was the first independent structural expert to assess the damage and what would be required to repair and/or replace it. Within days he was selected to be the professional in charge, lead structural engineer and owner’s representative for the rebuilding, which became known as The Phoenix Project. Under his leadership and that of Walker Lee Evey, the design and construction team rebuilt the iconic structure within 11 months, well ahead of schedule and well under budget.

The project required not only design and construction expertise, but also, and even more important, the capability to engage and facilitate an unprecedented sense of teamwork among design professionals and construction workers, and to coordinate and direct the efforts of this unusually diverse team. By its striking success, the project not only helped to restore a symbol of our nation, but also helped the American people to heal after the September 11th tragedy.

Mr. Kilsheimer is a registered Professional Engineer, with 46 years of experience (36 years as Founder and CEO of KCE Structural Engineers, PC) in direct charge of structural design for over $29 billion of construction. He is licensed in over 15 states. The technologies of building and material failures, natural and man-made disasters, historic restoration, forensic engineering, facade retention techniques, façade investigation, emergency repair work and selective demolition work have been an additional special service of Mr. Kilsheimer for many years. This expertise has been drawn upon by government agencies, private sector owners, contractors and major corporations throughout the United States and overseas.

This presentation is co-sponsored by the Washington, DC Chapter, The Institute for Operations Research and Management Science (WINFORMS) and Washington, DC Chapter, the Institute of Industrial Engineers. They gratefully acknowledge the co-sponsorship and generous support of General Dynamics, Network Systems Division (GD-NET), which is proud to have provided information technology for The Phoenix Project.

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A special word from Russ Wooten, WINFORMS President:

Dear Friends and Colleagues,

I am very excited to invite you to what I believe will be an event well worth attending. The National Capital Chapter of the Institute of Industrial Engineers and The Washington DC Chapter of the Institute of Operations Research and the Management Sciences along with corporate sponsor General Dynamics Network Systems is pleased to present the Phoenix Pentagon Reconstruction After 9/11 Program.

Mr. Allyn Kilsheimer, founder and CEO of KCE Structural Engineers, PC was the engineer-in-charge at the Pentagon after 9/11. His story, with his private collections of pictures, is one that everyone should know. Reconstruction of the Pentagon was completed in less than one year and under budget!

This free event is at The Galaxy Ballroom of the Sheraton National Hotel. The Galaxy Ballroom overlooks the side of the Pentagon that was damaged in the 9/11 terrorist attack. There is noadmission fee for this event, however; donations to the Pentagon Victims' Children's Fund and Hurricane Katrina are warmly encouraged and gratefully accepted. A representative from the Pentagon Victims' Children's Fund will be on site to answer any questions that you may have about the Fund.

Please distribute this information to all your colleagues, clients and friends.

Sincerely,

Russell Wooten

U. S. Department of Homeland Security

President; The National Capital Chapter of the Institute of Industrial Engineers

President; The Washington DC Chapter of the Institute of Operations Research and the Management Sciences

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John Kettelle’s 50-year professional career includes ballistic missile defense, congressional redistricting, under-sea warfare, and reorganization of the domestic airline industry. His entrepreneurial career started with his partnership with Daniel Wagner and culminated with Ketron, an OR company with over 300 employees. His undergraduate degree was in physics (Harvard), and his graduate work (Brown and Ohio State) was in pure mathematics. In WWII he served in the amphibious forces, and in the Korean conflict on a submarine. He has been active in MORS, Chairman of MAS, a founding member of the Management Science Roundtable, and editor of numerous books published by ORSA/INFORMS.

Saul I. Gass received his B. S. in Education and M. A. in Mathematics from Boston University, and his Ph. D. in Engineering Science / Operations Research from the University of California, Berkeley. He is currently Professor Emeritus at the Smith School of Business, U. MD. He first served as a mathematician for the Aberdeen Bombing Mission, U. S. Air Force, and then with the Air Force’s Directorate of Management Analysis (Pentagon), the organization in which linear programming was first developed. Later, for IBM, he was an Applied Science Representative, Manager of the Project Mercury Man in Space Program, and Manager of IBM's Federal Civil Programs. He has served as a consultant for and to a number of firms and governmental organizations. His publications include the recently published An Annotated Timeline of Operations Research: An Informal History (with A. Assad), and the Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Sciences (with Carl Harris). He is a past president of ORSA and Omega Rho. He is a recipient of ORSA’s Kimball Medal, INFORMS's Expository Writing Award, and MORS's Jacinto Steinhardt Memorial Award. He is a Fellow of INFORMS.

• Dr. Saul I. Gass
• Robert H. Smith School of Business
• University of Maryland
• College Park, MD 20742

This month's discussion evolves around two of the Home Land Security Department challenges.

Discussion Topics:

1. The cat and mouse game of terrorism prevention. Since game theory and decision theory are somewhat static representations, how should we address this issue? In other words, how do we do adversarial reasoning?

2. Unifying and strengthening our network of First Responders. How do we help local people protect their data, get the right information, and trust HLS help? And anything else to help them...

The moderator: Russell Vane, Out-Going President of WINFORMS

Please plan to attend and bring some friends along to the meeting. We look forward to seeing you.

• Nastaran Coleman
• Secretary
• Washington Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences
• P.O. Box 23257 Washington, DC 20026-3257

[This page last updated on 4 March 2008.]